Food for thought

I'm back with yet another blog name!! I wanted to say ad-hoc, as that is when I post, as and when I've got something to talk about.

I've started to take more of an interest in the state of the environment. I haven't quite made the transformation into a fully fledged tree-hugger, but the fact remains that even the most ignorant (me in this case) can be educated in a few short moments, and suddenly see that our actions now are absolutely unsustainable. I was pointed to this article on the BBC website and my thoughts instantly turned to the boys. They will be the ones faced with the fallout of this. There is an awful lot of doom and gloom about the near future of our world, but it seems justified, as even the governments seem to be paying attention.

I'd like to extend thanks to Todd Wilson, the Creative Director where I work, for opening my eyes to these issues (his particular area of interest is the Peak Oil situation). Feel free to check out the Energy links on the right, I'm absorbing them myself and formulating my own opinions, but it's all very eye opening. I'll leave you with some more food for thought, again courtesy of the BBC:

What if China catches up with the United States in consumption per person?

If the Chinese economy continues to grow at 8% a year, by 2031 income per person will equal that in the United States in 2004.

If we further assume that consumption patterns of China’s affluent population in 2031, by then 1.45 billion, will be roughly similar to those of Americans in 2004, we have a startling answer to our question.

At the current annual U.S. grain consumption of 900 kilograms per person, including industrial use, China’s grain consumption in 2031 would equal roughly two-thirds of the current world grain harvest. If paper use per person in China in 2031 reaches the current U.S. level, this translates into 305 million tons of paper—double existing world production of 161 million tons.

(There go the world’s forests.) And if oil consumption per person reaches the U.S. level by 2031, China will use 99 million barrels of oil a day. The world is currently producing 84 million barrels a day and may never produce much more. This helps explain why China’s fast-expanding use of oil is already helping to create a politics of scarcity and political instability. Or consider cars. If China one day should have three cars for every four people, as the United States now does, its fleet would total 1.1 billion vehicles, well beyond the current world fleet of 800 million. Providing the roads, highways, and parking lots for such a fleet would require paving an area roughly equal to China’s land in rice, its principal food staple.

The inevitable conclusion to be drawn from these projections is that there are not enough resources for China to reach U.S. consumption levels. The Western economic model—the fossil-fuel-based, automobile- centered, throwaway economy— will not work for China’s 1.45 billion people in 2031. If it does not work for China, it will not work for India either, which in 25 years is projected to have even more people than China. Nor will it work for the other 3 billion people in developing countries who are also dreaming the “American dream.” In an increasingly integrated world economy, where countries everywhere are competing for the same resources— the same oil, grain, and iron ore—the existing economic model will not work for industrialized countries like the United States, either.